Description: U.S. bond markets have undergone dramatic changes due to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. In taking a retrospective view, we can see that bond markets, viewed through the lens of major bond indices, have been evolving for quite some time. Within this paper, TD Asset Management Inc. (TDAM) will explore underlying changes that have occurred within the U.S. Corporate Bond Index, a sub-component of the larger U.S. investment grade bond market, over the past decade. We will highlight key structural changes that have occurred within bond markets and why they are noteworthy

Description: This article takes a look at how defined benefit (DB) pension plan financials ended the third quarter of 2023 on a solid footing, improving the capacity to take meaningful de-risking actions; as DB plans look to de-risk at reasonable costs, they may find it beneficial to consider a broad range of investment options; and completing a core bond allocation with private credit and income-oriented alternative strategies can help achieve important savings over other frequently pursued de-risking approaches, without materially increasing the funded status volatility or downside risk

Description: Decomposes guaranteed minimum maturity benefit option into a basket of components, and values each component with both a Black-Scholes model and a regime-switching GARCH model. Performs sensitivity analysis on dynamic lapse assumption.

Description: This article discusses the recent low interest rate environment and the asset-liability management challenges it presents for insurers. With respect to products such as deferred annuities, universal life and settlement options, it introduces the more robust duration measure called effective duration, which is the product of option-adjusted analysis OAA.

Description: The impact of Fed’s QE program on the financial markets has been enormous and profound. The tapering and the eventual removal of the stimulus will be equally enormous and profound, and may be disruptive. To adapt to the potential regime change in near future, some investment strategies have been proposed: (1) shorten duration to focus on the short end of the yield curve and create laddered portfolios; (2) reduce allocation to high yield bonds; (3) rotate out interest rate sensitive sectors such as utilities; and (4) use interest rate derivatives to hedge the interest rate uncertainties lying ahead. On the other hand, contrarians who see the QE program continuing may stay the course and consider (1) adding duration, (2) gaining exposure to high yield bonds, and (3) increasing allocation to utilities and telecoms.

Description: Summary of research project designed to document method to credit interest rates to account value based products. The investment year method (IYM) can theoretically align with investment strategy and be fair to policyholders. These products were designed in the 1980s with guaranteed nominal rates above what is currently accessible so most products credit the guaranteed rate. This paper documents how it could be resurrected during the next interest rate cycle.

Description: This article discusses asset-liability management from two different paradigms, one a simulation of the firm as an external observer e.g. shareholder would view it, and the other a “still life” at a given moment from an internal viewpoint.

Description: Reviews basic desirable features in an economic scenario generator. Discusses basics of model structure and validation process

Description: There are two main techniques for evaluating the financial impact of interest rate movements on insurance companies: duration measures and computer simulations. In many ways these approaches provide complementary viewpoints.

Description: This articles explains why many corporations are making massive reductions in risk related to their pension plans despite the fact that this means locking in costs at a time of historically low interest rates. This should help actuaries working with pension plans or pension investments advise clients on investment strategies and other approaches to de-risking.